And That’s Quietly Shifting the Market
For years, renting in Tijuana made perfect sense for thousands of Americans. Lower prices, proximity to California, and a daily border routine that felt almost normal. Lately, though, that equation has started to wobble.
According to Asociación Mexicana de Profesionales Inmobiliarios (AMPI), the number of U.S. citizens applying to rent properties in Tijuana has dropped between 15% and 20% over the past two years. That’s not a blip. That’s a trend.
Luis Fernando Serrano Macías, AMPI’s media coordinator in Tijuana, says the slowdown has been noticeable since 2024. And it hasn’t been driven by a sudden love affair with higher rents — it’s been driven by people leaving.
“Many decided to move to Arizona or Texas,” Serrano explained. Places where housing is still expensive, but paperwork, permanence, and predictability feel clearer.
Rents Adjusted — Quietly
As demand softened, prices followed. Some Tijuana rentals have dropped 10% to 20% compared to their peak. Not across the board, not dramatically — but enough for brokers and landlords to feel it.
This matters because, for years, U.S. renters helped push prices upward in border neighborhoods. Their exit has created breathing room, especially in mid-range rentals aimed at cross-border workers.
The average rent U.S. applicants are now seeking sits around $600 USD per month, according to AMPI — a price point that once felt obvious, and now feels cautious.
Politics, Expectations, and Reality
When Donald Trump’s return to the U.S. presidency was announced, expectations flared. Some predicted a wave of Mexico-American families or mixed-status households relocating to border cities to stay close while navigating immigration uncertainty.
That wave never fully arrived.
“There was a perception that large numbers of people with irregular status would rent along the border,” Serrano said. “In reality, the numbers were smaller than expected.”
What has arrived instead is something quieter — and more complicated.
Split Families, Smaller Homes
Some families have relocated partially. One parent moves south. The other stays north to work. Smaller rentals. Shorter leases. Less stability.
“If one person doesn’t have their migration status in order and has to leave the country, it’s often the mother or father,” Serrano noted. “That separation is happening.”
It’s not the mass migration some anticipated — but it is reshaping who rents, how long they stay, and what kind of housing they choose.
The California Comparison Still Hurts
Even with recent price drops, the math still favors Mexico. Housing costs in California remain roughly triple those in Tijuana, according to AMPI leadership. That gap hasn’t closed — but it’s no longer enough, on its own, to pull people south.
Border wait times, work arrangements, school logistics, and long-term residency questions now weigh heavier than rent alone.
What This Signals
Tijuana is still attractive to Americans — but fewer are willing to live in limbo. The drop in U.S. renters signals a shift from improvisation to long-term planning, even if that planning comes with higher monthly costs north of the border.
For landlords, it means pricing has to stay realistic.
For renters, it means options are opening up again.
For the city, it’s a reminder that cross-border life follows economics — but it obeys stability.
And right now, stability is in short supply on both sides.
